Portfolio · Financial Tools

Bitcoin Early
Retirement Calculator

Models two distinct funding requirements: the bridge period (retirement to 59½, funded entirely from BTC) and the post-supplement period (59½+, net of retirement accounts). Power Law calibrated to today's BTC price. All math runs in the browser.

Your Position

$
Calibrates the power law to today
$

Retirement Goals

$125K
85

Other Accounts

$
8%

Model Parameters

Return assumed on BTC during bridge period
20%
3%
4%

BTC Retirement Gap Analysis

BTC needed by age vs holdings + DCA accumulation

Total BTC Required
Bridge (pre-59½)
Post-59½ (net)
Holdings + DCA
BTC Price (right axis)
BTC Shortfall Today vs current holdings
Required Monthly DCA to hit target at retirement
Earliest Retirement Age holdings meet requirement
Days Sooner / 0.01 BTC marginal impact of saving more
At Retirement Age — Bridge BTC pre-59½ funding from BTC only
At Retirement Age — Post-59½ BTC net of projected retirement accounts
Power Law BTC Price at Retirement calibrated to today's price

The Bridge Problem

Retiring before 59½ creates a gap: 401k and IRA funds are inaccessible without penalty. Your BTC portfolio must fund 100% of spending alone during this period.

The model solves for the exact starting balance needed using a year-by-year simulation: withdraw inflation-adjusted spending, then apply BTC growth to the remainder. The bridge BTC requirement falls as you age toward 59½.

Balance(t+1) = (Balance(t) − Spend(t)) × (1 + rBTC)

The Power Law Model

Rather than assuming a fixed growth rate, the BTC Power Law (Santostasi) models price as a function of time since genesis — with growth naturally decelerating as Bitcoin matures.

Price(t) = Scale × (years since 2009)5.8

The scale constant is calibrated to your entered current price, so the model anchors to reality today and projects forward deterministically.

Reading the Chart